[#item_full_content] [[{“value”:”The Gist
“Moana” bombed, “Mandalorian” underwhelmed, Pixar originals aren’t catching on, and concerns still linger about “Avengers: Doomsday.”
In short, Disney’s IP is at a crossroads.
Meanwhile, audience appetite is shifting in real time.
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There was a time when Disney wasn’t afraid of IP outside of its own walls.
In the 2010s, it released live-action tentpoles like “Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time” (2010), “The Sorcerer’s Apprentice” (2010), “John Carter” (2012), “The Lone Ranger” (2013), and “Oz the Great and Powerful” (2013).
Of course, none of those movies were commercial or critical successes. And when Disney scooped up the likes of Marvel and Lucasfilm, and started to perfect its live-action remake strategy, and Pixar was firing on all cylinders, it retreated into safe bets. Who would say no to multiple Marvel movies a year, a Star Wars every year?
For a time, that worked. Disney dominated the latter half of the 2010s with the MCU; the Star Wars sequel trilogy; billion-dollar remakes like “Beauty and the Beast,” “Aladdin,” and “The Lion King”; and Pixar hits like “Finding Dory,” “Coco,” “Incredibles 2,” and “Toy Story 4.”
But now there are signs the armor is starting to crack. This month’s “Moana” remake is a disaster, grossing $180 million globally through this past weekend. It will likely top out below its massive $250 million budget and lose Disney millions of dollars.
I wrote last year about how “Snow White” sounded the Disney remake death knell. Of course, “Lilo and Stitch” grossed a billion dollars a few months later. But the issue is that Disney has to find a sweet spot for all of these live-action remakes — too late, like “Snow White,” and nobody cares; too soon, like “Moana,” and parents will just show their kid the original movie, barely a decade old, again. According to analyst David A. Gross, the average number of years between original and remake is 27. And Disney is running out of movies that hit that sweet spot. Is it going to remake “Frozen,” while also getting ready to release “Frozen 3”?
And even the MCU is now at a crossroads. Last year’s trio of movies performed closer to phase 1 than phase 3, and this week’s “Avengers: Doomsday” trailer — and its desperate “InfinityVision” ticket-sale marketing gimmick — did little to assuage my concerns about that movie. It looks like a bad video game, with ugly scenery and stale characters that nobody cares are in the same room together. It’s okay if you loved seeing Channing Tatum as Gambit, but what was a funny gag in “Deadpool and Wolverine” is now the action centerpiece of an Avengers trailer, pitting him against Shang-Chi, who hasn’t been seen in half a decade. It screams “We’re out of options.”
At least the movie seems self-aware: Thor all but admits that this is the C-team.
Of course, “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” next week (technically released by Sony) will be massive, and the online Marvel shills (i.e. paid influencers) will use that to convince you superhero fatigue isn’t real. As I wrote last time, call it superhero indifference, which is certainly real, but doesn’t apply to Spider-Man and a select few other characters or event movies.
I also wrote recently about how Pixar has an originals problem; its sequels like “Inside Out 2” and now “Toy Story 5” are blockbuster hits, but it hasn’t had a breakout original sensation since “Coco” nearly a decade ago. Like its remakes, it’s going to eventually run out of movies to make sequels for.
And then there’s Star Wars. I don’t think “The Mandalorian and Grogu” is a disaster — $345 million worldwide for a movie based on a streaming series isn’t that bad, especially since it didn’t cost as much as other Star Wars projects — but it also didn’t do much to change the narrative that Star Wars is on the decline.
Moana, Marvel, Mando…oh my.
So what’s the answer? Disney will likely double down on what’s working, like safe sequels and even some safe remakes, and some of those will undoubtedly work. But audience appetite is changing in real time, and it’s leaning towards original genre fare catered to young people (“Obsession”); new-to-movies beloved IP (“Project Hail Mary”); and A-list filmmakers at the top of their game (“The Odyssey”).
None of that really applies to what Disney is doing.
What I’m into right now
Yes, “The Odyssey” blew me away. Read my review.
I watched all the Minionverse movies for the first time since I last published. I adored “Minions and Monsters.”
Beyond the Traverse
📺 Disney+ is reportedly considering a free tier.
💰 A24 is willing to pay up to keep “Backrooms” director Kane Parsons from jumping ship.
🤖 The decline of the Hollywood trades continues: Why are they “reporting” on an AI-generated “movie” of The Odyssey as if that’s worthy of writing about?
The Traverse is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
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