Weekend Box Office Forecast: THE MARVELS and JOURNEY TO BETHLEHEM

After a lull in major studio releases during November’s first frame, the month begins to gain some momentum with the release of Marvel Studios’ 33rd cinematic chapter and a new faith-based offering from Sony.

Disney / Marvel Studios

November 10, 2023 (SEMI-WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $35M-$49M

PROS:

As far as franchise consistency goes, Marvel remains unsurpassed in terms of widespread brand awareness, established by the studio over the last 15 years. The original Captain Marvel was a runaway blockbuster smash during its 2019 run, earning $426.8 million domestically and $1.13 billion worldwide.
The slow autumn market could create some pent-up demand for escapism among audiences beyond loyal Marvel fans. Internet rumors hyping up this film’s post-credit scene could also help lure in some straggling moviegoers who may be on the fence.
Veterans Day (observed on Friday) could slightly skew the typically front-loaded nature of MCU films, especially with less urgency driving interest in this sequel than recent films in the overall franchise.

CONS:

Marvel goodwill has, unfortunately, soured over the past couple of years due to middling word of mouth across multiple films and over-exposure of the IP—also underscored by mixed reception—via Disney+ streaming series launched with the intention of expanding the brand.
Ongoing industry labor strikes have prevented Brie Larson and cast from promoting the film, contributing to a lackluster marketing campaign which has often leaned on nostalgia rather than showcasing story, character, and how the film might move the franchise forward.
Thursday pre-sales currently reflect these inherent and broader franchise challenges, as The Marvels lags 71 percent behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and 74 percent behind Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania at the same point in the pre-release window.
With the embargo lifting on Wednesday morning, Rotten Tomatoes critics stand at a 55 percent approval rating across the first 77 published reviews.

Sony / AFFIRM Films

November 10, 2023 (SEMI-WIDE)

Opening Weekend Range: $3M-$6M

PROS:

Faith-based audiences could turn out once again to this Biblical musical, which hopes to capture that often under-tracked moviegoer demographic with a holiday season-friendly release.

CONS:

Recent tracking has yet to pop as pre-sales trail the likes of faith-based releases After Death and His Only Son.

Current projection ranges call for a 63% decrease from the comparable weekend’s top ten aggregate of $206.9 million in 2022 and a 24% decrease from 2019’s $100.5 million frame.

Film
Studio
3-Day Weekend Forecast
Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, November 12
Fri Location Count Projection (as of Wed)
3-Day % Change from Last Wknd
The Marvels
Disney & Marvel Studios
$42,200,000
$42,200,000
~4,000
NEW
Five Nights at Freddy’s
Universal Pictures & Blumhouse
$7,600,000
$125,600,000
~3,600
-60%
Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour
AMC Theatres Distribution & Variance Films
$7,000,000
$173,800,000
~3,000
-49%
Killers of the Flower Moon
Paramount Pictures & Apple
$5,000,000
$60,100,000
~3,300
-27%
Journey to Bethlehem
Sony Pictures & AFFIRM Films
$4,000,000
$4,000,000
~2,000
NEW
Priscilla
A24
$3,600,000
$11,200,000
~2,200
-29%
The Holdovers
Focus Features
$2,300,000
$3,400,000
~900
305%
PAW Patrol: The Mighty Movie
Paramount Pictures
$1,600,000
$64,300,000
~1,900
-21%
Radical
Pantelion Films
$1,400,000
$4,900,000
~575
-47%
The Exorcist: Believer
Universal Pictures & Blumhouse
$1,300,000
$65,200,000
~1,700
-38%

All forecasts are subject to revision/finalization before the first confirmation of opening previews or Friday estimates from studios or official sources.

Theater counts are either studio estimates OR unofficial projections if preceded by “~”.

The above table does not necessarily represent the top ten as some studios do not finalize weekend location counts and/or an intent to report box office returns prior to publishing.